PLANO, TX — The world has undoubtedly changed over the past five years. The COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruption and record-setting inflation became reality’s baseline and a precursor to global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East affecting wheat distribution and safe maritime routes.
But as with any historical route, they lay a foundation for the future and how industries choose to innovate as a response to large-scale challenges. The good news is the baking industry rang in 2024 in slightly better condition than it did in 2023. Supply chain issues seem to be waning, and commodity prices are looking closer to stable.
According to Rabobank, a Dutch cooperative bank focused on food and agribusiness with a dedicated research team, the 2024 outlook for agricultural commodity prices estimates that sugar, coffee, corn and soybeans will somewhat normalize this year.
Perhaps circumstances have stabilized. Or perhaps the baking industry has become more proficient at adapting to change.
“As an industry, we have learned how to navigate these rough waters,” said JP Frossard, VP, consumer foods at Rabobank. “We have a little less volatility. We can’t take that for granted, but it is better than the past few years have been.”
Trend No. 1: Convenience and indulgence
To navigate the shifting consumer behavior amid all this change, the first — and most important — step is to understand what remains the same.
“Convenience and indulgence are not going anywhere,” Frossard said “They were already pockets of growth before the pandemic, and they’re still performing well.”
Meanwhile, certain trends have seen a push in recent years. For example, while health and wellness remain strong in terms of consumer preference, their definition of it has changed. What used to be a focus on low- and no-fat has evolved into looking at baked goods holistically, whether that means from an ingredient list perspective or how a treat fits into a healthy lifestyle overall.
As people redefine what wellness means to them, many have also redefined indulgence as a part of it.
