Small pockets of growth
Overall, growth is flat for center-store donuts, but Ferrall noted pockets of growth in smaller, more snackable formats. Donut holes were a standout, posting significant gains in both dollars and units, 73% and 63.3% vs. a year ago, respectively. While center-store mini donuts remained steady in dollars — showing a 1.7% increase vs. a year ago — this product type took a hit in unit sales during the same period, dropping -9.9%, according to Circana.
“Private label is currently the fastest-growing player in center store, while some branded offerings are weighing in on overall performance,” Ferrall said.
Flavor trends in center store are also shifting, with items like old-fashioned, apple cider, cinnamon, pumpkin and glazed showing strong momentum and mirroring successes seen in perimeter donuts. Additionally, larger multi-packs such as 8- and 15-count options are driving growth, while sales of center-store single-serve donuts are declining.
“To boost center-store sales, brands should focus on differentiated pack sizes, strong value positioning and flavor combinations that set them apart from fresh bakery options,” Ferrall observed.
Niche opportunities
Circana data reflects success for premiumization across total food and beverage and total bakery. Consumers are trading up for premium brands instead of paying less for value-driven products. However, donuts appear to be experiencing slightly different dynamics as shoppers are more likely to purchase mid- or low-priced donut brands vs. those positioned as high-quality or artisanal.
“This consumer behavior reflects the fact that donuts are succeeding as an affordable treat,” Ferrall said. “Delivering on permissible indulgence at a great price will drive category growth.”
Donut offerings with health-related information — including calorie labeling and nutritional attributes — are on the rise. Ferrall noted that donuts carrying calorie-related claims have more than doubled in dollar sales. Vegan and vegetarian claims are also increasing. However, there is limited evidence that this is driving overall category growth.
“While health-conscious options are gaining visibility, they are not yet a core driver of sales,” she said. “Claims related to protein, fiber and gluten-free are relatively flat, indicating that consumers still primarily view donuts as an indulgent product rather than a health-focused choice.”
