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Bread market on top, buns and rolls drive sales

Bread market on top, buns and rolls drive sales

KANSAS CITY, MO — Despite people’s on-again, off-again relationship with bread, buns and rolls, the category remains a constant because these products meet a variety of consumers’ needs. A 3.4% CAGR is expected between 2022 and 2030, with the category reaching a total of $350.17 billion, according to a 2023 bread market analysis conducted by The Insight Partners.

Storewide Growth for Buns and Rolls

Nearly 9 in 10 Americans consume buns and rolls, with 57% eating them at least once a week, according to The Bakery Playbook 2024: Buns and Rolls, a consumer research study series from the American Bakers Association (ABA). Consumer preferences support strong growth for this category in the center store and perimeter. Center store sales increased 2.3% in dollars and 1.0% in units, according to Circana’s data for the latest 52 weeks ending Dec. 1, 2024.

Sales grew in center store for hamburger/hot dog buns, which garners more than half the market share for overall buns and rolls. Dinner rolls follow closely behind, with 24.1% of the dollar share. With a 28.4% rise in dollar sales and 32% jump in units, specialty rolls is the break­out subsegment of center store buns and rolls.

“Growth for center store dinner rolls is driven primarily by private label, but also by King’s Hawaiian and Martin’s Famous Potato Buns and Bread,” said Melissa Altobelli, senior VP of bakery and dairy for Circana. “Private label Hawaiian flavor profiles increased growth as a less costly alternative to the King’s Hawaiian brand.”

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“Consumers are making more shopping trips and purchasing fewer items. The perimeter space lends itself to the quick trip to get a few items for the evening meal.” — Melissa Altobelli | senior VP of bakery and dairy | Circana

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Torrance, CA-based King’s Hawaiian shows a strong performance, dominating the dinner rolls category with 5.8% dollar and 2.5% unit increases. Altobelli noted the company’s growth was fueled by offering both small and large sizes of its savory butter dinner rolls and large 32-ounce packs of Hawaiian dinner rolls. Chambersburg, PA-based Martin’s Famous Pastry Shoppe’s dinner rolls also reported significant gains in dollars and units — 91.2% and 110.6%, respec­tively — with success attributed to its sweet variety of potato rolls.

“Growth for center store specialty rolls is driven mainly by private label, Pepperidge Farm and Sara Lee Artesano,” Altobelli said. “Both Pepperidge Farm Farmhouse and Sara Lee Artesano brioche rolls are a hit with consumers.”

Bun Brands Dominate

Some center store hamburger/hot dog bun brands performed well, with gains in both dollars and units. Thomasville, GA-based Flowers Foods increased 8.9% in dollar and 6.6% in unit sales, and Evansville, IN-based Lewis Baker­ies reported 14.6% dollar and 11.5% unit increases. Flowers’ Wonder and Nature’s Own brands are driving the company’s hamburger and hot dog bun growth.

“The Wonder brand offers value for consumers, while Nature’s Own’s success is attributed to its Perfectly Crafted brioche hamburger and hot dog buns and newly launched Nature’s Own Life Keto buns,” Altobelli said. “Lewis Bakeries’ gains are driven by its regular white hamburger and hot dog buns.”

Center store bread has the largest dollar share, with $11.80 billion vs. $1.70 billion for perimeter, according to Circana. However, the perimeter saw a 6.3% rise in unit sales, whereas center store, units were down -1.2%.

“Perimeter continues to outper­form center store across food and beverage, including bakery categories,” Altobelli said. “Consumers are making more shopping trips and purchasing fewer items. The perimeter space lends itself to the quick trip to get a few items for the evening meal.”

Perimeter bread varieties showed strong growth post-pandemic, flattened in 2023, and then increased in the latest 52 weeks ending Dec. 1, 2024, followed by 2% growth for buns and rolls, accord­ing to Altobelli. Bulk buns and rolls gained 7.3% in dollars and 4.3% in units, with consumers seeking more value for their purchase.

This story has been adapted from the February | Q1 2025 issue of Commercial Baking. Read the full story in the digital edition here.

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