It’s a roller-coaster on the “path forward,” according to IRI

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It’s a roller-coaster on the “path forward,” according to IRI

17 Feb 2021

Joanie Spencer

Since 2008, Joanie Spencer has covered the retail and wholesale sides of the baking industry.
Serving associations such as the American Society of Baking (ASB) and BEMA, Joanie is also in demand as an industry presenter on bakery operations and trends. She holds a bachelor’s degree in communication from Rockhurst University and a master’s degree in journalism from the University of Missouri.

When she’s not running or playing soccer, Joanie spends her time with her husband and 11-year-old son.

KANSAS CITY, MO — It’s true that 2020 was an absolute roller coaster on all fronts, including consumer eating and purchasing behavior. Trend tracking was a daunting task, which is why IRI grouped the year into “during COVID” — the eight weeks during March and April when lockdowns were the strictest— and the “path forward” period — May 3 through Nov. 29.

“The ‘path ahead’ really gives you an idea of what consumers were doing as things became more the norm in 2020,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, executive VP and practice leader, client insights for IRI, in her breakout presentation during the American Society of Baking’s BakingTECH virtual conference taking place through Feb. 18.

In the “during COVID” period, bakery items grew 60%, while dinner-focused items surged 36%. Then, during the path forward, bakery items maintained 25% growth, and dinner-focused maintained an 11% increase.

“You can see growth across different occasions, whether it’s breakfast, beverage occasion or if it’s kid-focused,” she said, noting that the only packaged food and beverage area that didn’t grow was baby food.

For bakery, Lyons Wyatt reported that for center store and perimeter combined bakery, which faced seemingly insurmountable headwinds in recent years, experienced overall growth. “That is a big testament to the value of the department,” she said.

“All-in-all, we’re about to overlap 2020,” Lyons Wyatt said. “It’s going to be harder for center store, but perimeter will probably see a good year in 2021.”

For center store and perimeter separately, the pandemic did a number on the relationship between the two. At 3.8% dollar sales growth in 2019, perimeter was outpacing center store, which was relatively flat at a mere 1% dollar sales bump. Then during COVID, dollar sales declined in perimeter bakery, but center store skyrocketed at 24.5%.

On the path forward, the trend is the same, with a decline in the perimeter and growth in the center store (see the February issue of Commercial Baking for a full category outlook).

“All-in-all, we’re about to overlap 2020,” Lyons Wyatt said. “It’s going to be harder for center store, but perimeter will probably see a good year in 2021.”

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