AMELIA ISLAND, FL — In many ways, there’s no such thing as “pre-“ or “post-pandemic” because in terms of consumer behavior, things will never go back to the way they were.
During a presentation at the American Bakers Association’s annual convention, held March 26-28, Jonna Parker, principal and team lead for fresh foods at Circana, shared insights around what’s driving today’s consumers who she described as “boundaryless.”
Obviously, food consumed at home in 2020 had the lion’s share of the market.
“We eroded a little bit of that share in 2021 as people started ‘revenge traveling’ and ‘revenge eating out,’” Parker said.
But as inflation hit all-time highs in 2022, people had to find new ways to feed their consumption habits while under financial constraints.
“When consumers hear about inflation, they immediately stick to their guns and say, ‘Food sourced from the grocery store is going to be cheaper,’” Parker said, noting that in 2022, just over 60% of food consumed at home was purchased at retail.
When looking at “retail” as synonymous with any outlet outside of foodservice, consumers have a host of omnichannel purchasing options, and according to Parker, the scale will remain tipped in retail’s favor for the remainder of the decade.
Looking specifically at bakery retail — which includes perimeter and center store — the numbers can tell different stories, depending on the angle.
“When we break retail down, the reality is that price drove dollars up, and units depressed for 2022,” Parker said. “A negative two percent unit decline in a 12.5 percent inflationary environment means that people still found reasons to purchase baked goods at retail.”
Price, Parker said, is not necessarily what’s driving the purchase for the boundaryless consumer.
“A negative two percent unit decline in a 12.5 percent inflationary environment means that people still found reasons to purchase baked goods at retail.” — Jonna Parker | fresh foods team lead | Circana
As the retail landscape shifts more than ever, there are a host of factors beyond just price that are motiving purchase decisions. That’s what’s making consumers so boundaryless.
One big implication that both retailers and baked goods manufacturers must keep in mind is that brands cannot be all things to all people, all the time. These days, it’s critical to understand the shopper journey, whether it’s in-store, online, through a retailer or direct from a brand … or a hybrid of them all.
“What that means, in the end, when we’re thinking about a boundaryless consumer, is that there’s a changing of the guard,” Parker said. “People have more choice than they ever have, in any aspect of our commercial lives, in terms of what we buy and what we sell. And that means the definition of value will change.”
Watch for continued coverage of the boundaryless consumer and Parker’s conversation with Molly Hjelm, group director, advertising, for Kroger Precision Marketing at the Kroger Co.; Omar Haque, VP and GM of omichannel for Bimbo Bakeries USA; and Alicia Kuri, eCommerce category and shopper insights for Nestle Coffee Partners, as they discuss omnichannel trends, challenges and best practices for bakery markets.
