PALM SPRINGS, CA — There may not be such thing as “post pandemic” quite yet, but after more than two years since the onset of COVID-19 in the US, researchers have gathered enough in-store bakery (ISB) data to track data applicable to the commercial baking industry.
At the American Bakers Association (ABA)’s annual convention held March 26-30, David Henkes, senior principal at Technomic, analyzed some of that data specific to the ISB. He then applied those findings to a panel discussion with Mary Ellen Adcock, senior VP of operations for Cincinnati-based Kroger Co., and Melissa Bylow, bakery category manager for Sacramento-based Raley’s Inc.
There’s good news for bakeries selling through ISB: the category is growing.
“We’re certainly seeing a lot of growth, there’s no question,” Henkes said. “Those of you who are involved in the grocery channel have seen that.”
According to Technomic data, grocery sales have seen a 17% increase from two years ago and about an 8% increase vs. a year ago. And while basket sizes are shrinking, the total average spend is going up. That’s in part due to inflation, of course, but it also speaks to a consumer preference of quality over quantity.
Growth happening in bakery items that revolve around convenience and indulgence, and what that growth looks like, can depend on the area of the store and the occasion for which a consumer is buying.
Henkes noted that Technomic’s research showed consumers had indicated that the in-store bakery might be a little less of a driver since the pandemic started. That’s not surprising considering that some key areas in the ISB had to close during that period. People were no longer reaching into bins for bagels or grabbing donuts out of the self-serve case.
With items like bread, the center store has seen stronger growth than the ISB, but that may be starting to shift.
“What we’ve seen is that the convenience factor and location really drove those visits to the center store, whereas the in-store bakery sales were down,” he said.
Despite the fact that certain subcategories struggled, the overall ISB decline is recoverable. In fact, Technomic’s forecasting data predicts about 6% growth for the ISB by 2023.
“We are certainly expecting in-store bakeries to recover, accelerate and do very well over the next three years,” Henkes said.
But this recovery depends on good partnerships between retailers and the bakeries that supply them. During the panel, Adcock and Bylow identified some of their needs.