New ABA workforce study projects 53,500 unfilled jobs by 2030

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New ABA workforce study projects 53,500 unfilled jobs by 2030

18 Oct 2023

Mari Rydings

Mari Rydings is a versatile content creator, editor and marketer with experience developing dynamic, results-driven materials for B2B and B2C audiences. As the editorial director for Avant Food Media, she leads the day-to-day editorial operations for the company’s print and digital magazines, newsletters and social media platforms. Outside of work, she loves reading, hiking, putting together jigsaw puzzles and spending time with her husband and their twin daughters.

WASHINGTON DC — The American Bakers Association (ABA), in partnership with research firm ndp | analytics, released the findings from its study on the projected workforce deficits in the commercial baking industry. Results from the workforce study revealed the commercial baking industry will have a projected 53,500 unfilled jobs by 2030.

“The data speaks for itself and is a chasm that threatens the very foundation of our industry and requires immediate and collective action,” said Eric Dell, president and CEO of ABA.

Economic impact of baking industry labor shortage

The ongoing workforce shortage in the commercial baking industry is poised to escalate, with employers struggling to occupy roles and an aging workforce headed toward retirement.

“Some of the challenges bakers are having that I’m hearing over and over again is with workforce retention, being able to find and hire people that meet the qualifications of the workers they need,” Dell said in an interview with Commercial Baking at NEXUS of Baking.

According to the ABA workforce study, demand for skilled workers will be concentrated in the critical operational occupations of production, engineering and equipment maintenance, and shipping and distribution. By 2030, the ripple effect of these shortages is expected to be felt throughout the supply chain, impacting communities and businesses nationwide.

Total impact of the baking industry labor shortage

Data from the ABA workforce study reflects direct, indirect and induced reflects:

148K lost jobs
$3.3 billion in lost taxes (direct only)
$9.7 billion in lost wages
$36.2 billion in lost output

Projected commercial baking shortage in 2030 by region

Midwest: 13.4K unfilled jobs (IL, IN, IA, MI, MN, MO, OH, WV, WI)
South: 12.9K unfilled jobs (AL, AR, DC, FL, GA, KY, LA, MD, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA)
West: 10.3K unfilled jobs (AK, AZ, CA, HI, ID, NV, OR, UT, WA)
Northeast: 10.2 unfilled jobs (CT, DE, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT)
Plains: 6.6K unfilled jobs (CO, KS, MT, NE, NM, ND, OK, SD, TX, WY)

“The data speaks for itself and is a chasm that threatens the very foundation of our industry and requires immediate and collective action." — Eric Dell | president and CEO | American Bakers Association

“The American Bakers Association champions the pressing issues of the commercial baking industry in Washington,” Dell said. “Our advocacy underscores the urgency to maintain an uninterrupted supply of quality baked goods, pave prosperous career paths, and ensure food equity and security across our nation. In collaboration with stakeholders, we are dedicated to safeguarding the future of our industry and the communities we serve by identifying solutions to this growing workforce crisis.”

ABA’s members will address the workforce issue and potential solutions with policymakers on Nov. 14, during the Bakers Fly-In and Policy Summit.

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