Latest consumer insight data reveals opportunity for bakers

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Latest consumer insight data reveals opportunity for bakers

1 Apr 2025

Maddie Lambert

Maddie Lambert is a copywriter and editor from Joplin, MO. She graduated from Missouri Southern State University with a Bachelor of Arts in English – literary studies. When she’s not poring over the magazine or lost in the pages of a new novel, you can find Maddie exploring her local bookstores, spending time with her husband, or sharing her latest literary discoveries with fellow book enthusiasts.

ORLANDO, FL — Consumer shopping remains an evolving target, and buying preferences are consistently influenced by modern trends and personal convenience.

The bakery category has high potential to contribute to business growth and leave a lasting impression on consumers, according to The Bakery Playbook 2025, a new consumer research study series from the American Bakers Association (ABA), conducted by Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics.

The Bakery Playbook series — sponsored by Dawn Foods, Lesaffre and Puratos and supported by media sponsor Avant Food Media — provides in-depth consumer insights for a variety of bakery categories.

Roerink shared what’s currently impacting the marketplace in the “Bakery Playbooks” business session during ABA’s 2025 convention, held March 23-26 in Orlando, FL.

Sense and sensibility

Consumers are feeling the squeeze of mortgages, car payments and rent in addition to shopping for day-to-day groceries and meals.

“What we’re seeing is 30 percent of consumers are cutting back on restaurant meals while 23 percent are eating out a little bit more,” Roerink said. “A lot has to do with how confident consumers are in their ability to spend. We are seeing tremendous growth in the grocery deli area, and that includes convenience stores as well.”

Shoppers are balancing cooking on their own with a few convenient, time-saving solutions, which are often grocery deli-prepared. Roerink advises the industry not to think about it as retail vs. foodservice but instead as a hybrid of both.

“We are seeing some changes in behavior, and our bakery category is not growing at the same pace as some of our other categories,” said Doug Hensler, VP, category development at Foodbuy. “As we see pressure on consumer dollars, it tells us that we have to try to create excitement and a compelling reason to buy in foodservice that makes bakery attractive, whether that means showcasing items differently, focusing on seasonal selling stories, global flavors, or even just the latest healthy trends.”

There is more emphasis on home-prepared meals and meal preparation, and companies can ensure baked goods are part of the conversation. This, in addition to a desire for less food waste, presents a large space for innovation in the baked goods industry.

Tristen Kendall-Barros, VP of marketing at Roche Bros. Supermarkets, noted that a main priority for grocery store chains is to help solve the dinner challenge — value from a convenience standpoint — while fitting bakery into the solution.

“It’s important to make it easy for the customers to take that mental load of ‘What’s for dinner?’ off their mind, merchandise a full dinner solution, and change that on a frequent basis,” Kendall-Barros said. “Make it easy for them to walk in the store and find that solution.”

“We have to try to create excitement and a reason for foodservice that compels consumers and makes bakery attractive, whether that means showcasing items differently, focusing on seasonal selling stories, global flavors, or even just the latest healthy trends.” — Doug Hensler | VP, category development | Foodbuy

Balancing freshness with quality

The key to inserting the baking segment into the equation relies on consumers having a set meal plan that includes buns, bread and other baked products before they set foot in the store.

From a c-store perspective, having the right product on the shelf at the right time is crucial. Brad Clarkin, VP of production operations at Kwik Trip, acknowledged the company’s seven-day-a-week delivery structure as the foundation for the store’s continued success.

“A c-store, on average, receives less than two deliveries per week,” he explained. “We’re at our store seven days a week. I think that gives us another competitive advantage in regard to freshness.”

Kwik Trip has also benefitted — and saw increased consumer foot traffic — from take-home meals, which started in 2020. The initial roll-out included more than 20 different meal options, and the top three items that started in the program’s first 90 days remain the three top-selling items today.

“At the end of the day, consumers use their dollars to tell you what they want, and we keep those items consistent,” Clarkin said. “We hear from a lot of guests that they want breakfast options in the take-home meal category, but we’ve tried an infinite number of times. They simply don’t work for our program, which was an insightful standpoint to figure out which products won’t sell for us.”

What’s working for Roche Supermarkets, according to Kendall-Barros, is its grab-and-go breakfast options.

“We’re definitely seeing an uptick in people grabbing breakfast on the way to the office, as well as taking sandwiches for lunch,” she said. “In addition, we’re also seeing corporate catering come back. Our sandwiches and wraps are making a comeback as corporate companies are trying to lure people back into the office.”

From an organizational standpoint, Foodbuy has been pursuing the concept of flex spaces for their versatility and efficiency.

“We’re seeing growth in these areas, in places like universities, airport lounges, and sporting venues,” Hensler said. “There’s a desire for smaller portions, snacking more often, and consumers want convenience at any time. We need an attractive assortment that works for them and essentially meets them where they are.”

To achieve this, foodservice operators may consider a variety of traditional flavors with modern twists.

Consumers are seeking solutions to modern challenges with their meals, such as time and budget constraints. With the right format, baked goods that strike a balance between quality and convenience are sure to resonate with shoppers, regardless of where they spend their hard-earned dollars.

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