AMELIA ISLAND, FL — During the American Bakers Association (ABA)’s annual convention, which took place March 26-29, Anne-Marie Roerink, founder and principal of 210 Analytics, shared insights from “A Closer Look: Life Through the Lens of Bakery,” with updates to the consumer trends study commissioned by ABA.
With inflationary pressure top of mind, many consumers acknowledge that eating at home can be less expensive. And, Roerink said, they find it to be healthier, as well.
That said, the study revealed that consumers are still prioritizing baked items, whether it’s an everyday indulgence or specifically for a special occasion. It’s one way that people are increasingly trying to find balance in their lives.
“Yes, there is tremendous pressure to buy the groceries and food that we need,” Roerink said. “But we continue to see that people want to make sure they have the occasional treat.”
That sentiment is being played out in the market. Although Circana data revealed a slight decline in bakery unit sales, dollar sales are strong, according to Roerink, across nearly every category including frozen and refrigerated baked goods, cookies, crackers and others.
Relative to other food categories throughout grocery, bakery dollar and unit sales are steady, if not strong, despite the volume and unit pressure.
While inflationary pressures are causing shifts in shopping strategies, baked goods are still on the grocery list.
“What it boils down to is that we have a tremendous opportunity in bakery to help people make life work,” Roerink said, “to manage the balancing act between budget, taste, health and time.”
To complement the research update, Roerink hosted an expert panel that included Debo Mukherjee, CMO at Flowers Foods; Josh Bickford, president of Clyde’s Donuts; and George Vindiola, VP of R&D at Campbell Snacks.
“Indulgences are not dead,” Bickford said. “They’re a part of our lives. People are still having that treat or something special that sparks a memory or joy in our life.
Mukherjee noted that it’s important to offer families opportunities to enjoy indulgence at home and give them the opportunity to celebrate whenever possible.
“It’s important for us as an industry to recognize that we need to give households the ability to celebrate life’s little moments at home,” he said. “Give them creativity; bring it home.
“What it boils down to is that we have a tremendous opportunity in bakery to help people make life work.” — Anne-Marie Roerink | founder and principal | 210 Analytics
Similarly, Vindiola noted that in tight economic times, life does keep moving, and people still want to celebrate and indulge now and then, even if it’s in modified ways.
“If you have a birthday, you still want a birthday cake,” Vindiola said. “Whether maybe now it’s a cupcake or a smaller size, you still want to enjoy that moment and indulge.”
And while inflation is not holding consumers back from indulging now and then, health concerns aren’t necessarily holding them back, either. In fact, Roerink said, permissibility in bakery is very high across all generations.
“You don’t often see Gen Z or millennials say they believe that baked goods are okay to occasionally have in the diet,” she said. “So, permissibility is a big win in this category. It’s something to leverage in our marketing.”
Additionally, the research revealed a belief that bakery indeed has a place in the balanced healthy lifestyle.
“Bakery can be part of a good diet,” Vindiola said. “Whether it’s whole grains or refined grains, there’s lot of proof that says baked goods can be in the diet. We as an industry need to continue that message because it’s real. And when it’s supported by science, it can be believable to consumers.”
Showcasing better-for-you ingredients or a clean, simple ingredient list is often a way to get that message across. Words like “real butter,” “no artificial colors or flavors,” and “no preservatives” help encourage that permissibility to indulge.
“Building on that is important,” Bickford said, noting the challenge that comes with sweet goods often draw concern from health-conscious consumers. “I don’t think there’s anything wrong with celebrating moderation, either.”
It’s all about creating indulgences that consumers — no matter the constraints — will feel justified in having.
“We can say to consumers, ‘We’re going to fill that emotional, joy component with something that’s really indulgent,’” Bickford said. “Because at the end of the day, if they’re going to indulge in a donut or a brownie, they want it to be one that’s great tasting. If we can do that through improvements in formulation, it’s a fantastic opportunity.”
ABA’s “Life Through the Lens of Bakery” research is available to ABA members on the ABA website.
Look for continued coverage of research updates and panelist insight in the coming weeks.
