Flavorful celebrations keep cake sales flourishing

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Flavorful celebrations keep cake sales flourishing

3 Mar 2026

KANSAS CITY, MO — Seasonal celebrations and special occasions drive demand for cakes, and the global market is forecasted to reach $123.45 billion in 2030, according to a recent Mordor Intelligence growth trend report for 2025-2030. Unpackaged artisanal cakes accounted for more than half of market share in 2024, but packaged formats are expected to expand 4.78% by 2030.

Products in the perimeter are leveraging category trends. Perimeter cakes posted 2.4% growth, with more than $6.6 billion in dollar sales, and this segment is nearly 12 times the size of center store cakes, according to Circana retail data from the latest 52 weeks ending Nov. 30, 2025. Private label brands slice the competition; they comprise more than 80% of perimeter cake products.

Total US – Multi Outlet w/ C-Store (Grocery, Drug, Mass Market, Convenience, Military and Select Club & Dollar Retailers) | Latest 52 Weeks Ending Nov. 30, 2025 Source: Circana Omnimarket Integrated Fresh, a Chicago-based Market Research Firm (@WeAreCircana)

“Private label depth and breadth in the perimeter affords convenience via size and flavor varieties,” said Dawn Aho, principal of client insights, bakery vertical at Circana. “Private label items tend to be more affordable than center store brands, and families managing their monthly budgets make tradeoffs during every shopping trip across the two store locations.”

Perimeter gains are driven by increases in four subcategories, according to Circana data.

With a reported 7.3% growth, perimeter layer cakes is the largest of the subcategories. This segment provides multiple size options, including full, half and quarter cakes as well as cake slices, to provide solutions for most meal occasions in large and small households. Perimeter layer cake flavors with the greatest sales growth include Tres Leches, carrot, red velvet, chocolate and white/vanilla, many of which are specifically unique to perimeter.

With a reported 7.3% growth, perimeter layer cakes is the largest of the subcategories.

Loaf/pound cakes also showed gains, reporting 4.2% growth. This segment wins over consumers with top-selling flavors such as banana/banana nut, plain/vanilla, lemon, strawberry shortcake and marble cake. Next up, with a 3.8% increase, the specialty cakes subsegment offers various perimeter items that are driving sales, including mousse cakes, creme cakes, tiramisu, pudding cakes, tortes and roll cakes.

Lastly, the perimeter All Other snack cakes subsegment also shows increases in sales, reporting a 16.9% increase vs. a year ago. Aho noted that top sellers include cake parfaits, cake pops, petit fours and whoopie pies, along with traditional flavors such as vanilla, chocolate, and cookies and creme.

“Offering consumers a choice of interesting flavors, multiple sizes and multi-serve assortments is the common thread among all of these growing perimeter cake segments,” Aho explained. “Perimeter cakes offer perceived freshness and a bakery-like experience. These product choices align with consumer needs and provide variety for individual family members and preferences for celebrations and parties.”

This story has been adapted from the February | Q1 2026 issue of Commercial Baking. Read the full story in the digital edition here.