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Joanie Spencer, editor-in-chief of Commercial Baking

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Sweet treats see spike in shopper interest

Jonna Parker and Bridget Kraft of Circana presenting at IDDBA 2025
PHOTO BY AVANT FOOD MEDIA
BY: Annie Hollon

Annie Hollon

NEW ORLEANS — In order for baking teams to pivot according to current market dynamics, keeping pace with consumer shopping habits is vital for innovation strategies. Insights at events such as IDDBA, which took place June 1-3 in New Orleans, offer expert insights such as those from Jonna Parker and Bridget Kraft, principal II, fresh foods team lead and executive director, new business development, food and beverage consumption, respectively, at Circana.

The presentation, “Through the Eyes of the Consumer: Trends that Matter in Dairy, Deli and Bakery in Retail, Foodservice and Beyond,” offered showgoers a data-driven look at where these industry segments stand.

Firstly, Parker noted a shift in shopping habits, as consumers pivot toward buying more often for what they need rather than making one larger purchase, which is dubbed “just in time” shopping.

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“It’s actually favored the dairy, deli and bakery space, because one of the things that held consumers back from shopping more in those aisles was the fear of it not being good when they need it,” she said.

There’s also the looming economic recession prompting consumers to tighten their purse strings.

“Overarchingly, the consumer is not very optimistic,” Parker said. “That said, there is still a lot of opportunity. Even though they’re feeling the temperature of being really tight on dollars, if we can make life easier for them, help elevate the everyday, that’s showing a lot of buoyancy in consumer spending.”

Alongside price, consumers are increasingly discerning the health attributes in their foods, such as offerings with low sugar and/or high protein that appeal to a broad spectrum of shoppers.

“Even though they’re feeling the temperature of being really tight on dollars, if we can make life easier for them, help elevate the everyday, that’s showing a lot of buoyancy in consumer spending.” — Jonna Parker | principal II, fresh foods team lead | Circana

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Sweet treat supremacy

Among all the subcategories within baking, croissants are seeing a meteoric rise in terms of dollars and units.

“We see in the center commercial aisle that croissants are doing incredibly well,” Parker said. “Croissants continue to be a way for consumers to elevate surprise and delights, despite the fact that bakery trends overarchingly and bread are retracting a little bit in 2025.”

This growth is spurred by new consumers who didn’t buy them last year but are adding croissants, particularly in the perimeter, to their carts. Yet while this product type is experiencing major growth in sales, Circana figures revealed a retraction in frequency.

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“While croissants are growing, we have a problem retaining consumers to continue to buy them,” Parker said, noting that any product category could fall victim to that trend.

Special occasions are growing both in and away from home, Kraft noted, opening a path to reach consumers in various generations.

“Donuts and cookies have definitely found their way into these special occasions,” Kraft said.

With these special occasions, shoppers are seeking a taste of something new, offering R&D teams an opportunity to draw in consumer by getting inventive with flavor and format.

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